By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Nearly four full months late, the U.S. Census Bureau announced apportionment totals for the next round of redistricting. Here are some initial thoughts on the process and the fight for the House:
•The House majority was in play before the reapportionment announcement and it’s in play after the reapportionment announcement. House Republicans need a net gain of just 5 seats in the 2022 elections.
•Go West, Young Man. American political power continued its steady shift westward. Five of the seven new districts will be in western states (two in Texas, one each in Colorado, Montana, and Oregon). Six of the eliminated districts came from the East Coast and the Midwest (Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia). That said, Florida and North Carolina both gained a seat, and California lost a seat.
•Surprise! Less movement in fewer states. One of the big surprises was that fewer seats shifted in fewer states compared to pre-announcement estimates. Texas was estimated to gain three seats, while it only gained two. Florida was estimated to gain two seats and it gained one. Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon will gain a single seat each. Arizona was estimated to gain a seat but did not in the final data. An undercount of Hispanic voters is a logical explanation for this miss, but Census Bureau officials on the announcement call were not explicit and said it was within 1 percent of pre-census estimates.
Seven states will lose a seat: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Alabama were at risk of losing one district each but will maintain their current seat counts.
•Big states to watch remain the same. ...