Welcome to a redistricting cycle, where the routine is more complicated.
Typically, members announce they aren’t seeking reelection, political journalists produce long lists of people mentioned as contenders for the open seat and the race begins. In a redistricting cycle, however, it’s not clear what the district will look like after the new lines are drawn or even what number the district will have for the next decade.
In March, Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick announced she will not seek re-election in Arizona’s 2nd District. And Democratic trauma surgeon Randy Friese promptly announced his campaign. But it’s not entirely clear what the seat will look like for the 2022 elections.
According to 2019 estimates from the Census Bureau, the district might need to gain some constituents to keep up with population growth, but Arizona is likely to gain a 10th district due to reapportionment, so the geography of the seat could change, perhaps significantly. And there’s no guarantee that it will remain the 2nd District. That’s why it’s important to not automatically label potential candidates as 2nd District contenders and to understand how geography impacts their decision to run.
Ten years ago, GOP Rep. Jeff Flake of Arizona announced his Senate campaign in February of the off-year. Former Republican Rep. Matt Salmon wasted little time and declared his candidacy for the open 6th District race about a month later.
In the end, after a competitive primary and less competitive general election, Salmon was elected to the 5th District, without switching races. The newly drawn 5th was made up entirely of territory from Flake’s old 6th, according to Daily Kos Elections. But due to population growth over the preceding decade,...