Republican Sen. Roy Blunt announced he will not seek re-election in Missouri, setting off a scramble to replace him on the Republican side and leaving Democrats with only a marginally better takeover opportunity at this early stage of the cycle.
Blunt is the fifth Republican senator to announce he will not seek re-election, joining Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Rob Portman of Ohio, Richard Burr of North Carolina, and Richard Shelby of Alabama. At 87 years old, Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley is a retirement possibility, and Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson is contemplating not running again as well. No Democrats have announced they will not seek re-election.
For some perspective, five retirements is the most a party has had in a cycle since Democrats had seven senators not seek re-election in 2012 (including Connecticut's Joe Lieberman). Both parties each had six senators retire in 2010, according to Vital Statistics on Congress.
Remember it is unwise to draw dramatic conclusions simply from which party has more open Senate seats. The number of Senate retirements is not predictive of the final gain or loss of Senate seats that cycle.
In 2020, Republicans outpaced Democrats in Senate retirements and lost control of the chamber. But none of the four seats Republicans lost came from an open seat. In 2018, Republicans had more Senate retirements than Democrats and the GOP gained two seats. Democrats had more Senate retirements in 2016 and gained two seats.
The location of the state, and its partisanship, is more important than the open seat itself.
We did not consider Missouri a battleground before Blunt's decision and do not consider it a battleground after his decision, at least not yet. Open seats can make things more complicated for the...