Sen. Richard Shelby’s decision not to seek re-election in Alabama fueled multiple narratives: Republicans in disarray in the wake of President Donald Trump’s loss; a fatalist mentality that the GOP is destined to remain in the Senate minority. Just a quick browse through recent history, however, shows that it’s best not to draw too many conclusions from Senate retirements.
At 86 years old, Shelby's announcement should not have come as a surprise. Just a few months into the cycle, he’s already the fourth Republican to announce his retirement from the Senate (joining Ohio,s Rob Portman, Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey and North Carolina’s Richard Burr) and at least two other GOP senators are on retirement watch lists (Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Chuck Grassley of Iowa), it’s easy to see how the Republican exodus narrative is built.
But even if more Republicans choose not to run, it’s important to remember that the GOP needs to gain just a single seat to retake the Senate majority in the next election. And history is on their side, as the national political environment in midterms often works against the president’s party.
It’s true that just a couple of months into this cycle, there are almost the same number of Senate retirements as there were in 2020. Republicans obviously lost control of the Senate, but it wasn’t because of those open seats. They successfully defended Kansas (Pat Roberts), Tennessee (Lamar Alexander) and Wyoming (Mike Enzi). Democrats defended their lone open seat, in New Mexico (Tom Udall).
In 2018, Republicans had three Senate retirements (Jeff Flake of Arizona, Bob Corker of Tennessee and Orrin Hatch of Utah) and Democrats didn’t have any. Yet Republicans still added two seats to their Senate majority.
Democrats Led in...