Democrats’ quest to take back the Senate paid off this cycle, thanks in no small part to a slate of strong candidates. The unique benefit provided by these recruits, as well as the value of other 2020 Senate contenders, can be quantified using Vote Above Replacement (VAR). And it provides depth to some of the most important results, including GOP Sen. Susan Collins’ surprising margin in Maine.
VAR measures the strength of a political candidate relative to a typical candidate from their party within the same state. That initial benchmark is derived using Inside Elections Baseline, which captures a state…
This is paid content. Subscribers can read the full article on the website.