More than two months later, the 2020 elections are still handing out lessons. The latest: Don’t judge election projections until all the results have hatched.
Lost in the aftermath of the siege on the U.S. Capitol was the fact that Democrats won two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Not only does control of the Senate have a profound impact on President Joe Biden’s agenda and appointments and Republicans’ ability to launch investigations, the result lined up with pre-election expectations.
After Nov. 3, the decided narrative was “Here we go, 2016 all over again.” After President Donald Trump lost by less than expected and House Republicans overperformed, handicappers were forced to go on an apology tour.
Now with the benefit of a full slate of results, the preelection projections look different, and better.
The Senate switching party control should not be a surprise. By October 2019, it was clear the chamber was in play.
Here’s what we wrote in Inside Elections:
“With President Donald Trump struggling to recreate his 2016 Electoral College victory, control of the Senate should be regarded as in play. Republicans are still more likely than not to maintain control of the Senate, but Democrats have a legitimate path to control, particularly if they win the White House.”
Not bad for a declaration made more than a year before the elections and before COVID-19 and the economic fallout were imaginable. Winning in Georgia to seal control was not the most likely path to Democratic control, but the party’s cautious optimism for 2020 was fueled by multiple takeover opportunities. If one (or four, or five) races failed, they still had enough to get across the line.
The Democratic trifecta should not be considered...