More than 158 million voters cast ballots in the November election. And while Joe Biden won the Electoral College (by a margin Republicans called a landslide four years ago) and Democrats maintained control of the House, the emerging narrative is one of Republican resurgence and resilience down the ballot after the party made unexpected gains in the House and successfully defended nearly all of its vulnerable Senate seats.
A closer examination of House results, however, reveals how precariously that narrative rests on just a relative handful of votes, a fraction of a fraction of the total ballots cast nationwide. Small shifts in either direction could have resulted in substantial changes in outcome (and the overall narrative), to either party’s benefit.
The Edge of Seventeen
The GOP fell short of reclaiming the House majority by just 31,751 votes. More than 152 million votes were cast in House races this year.
Republicans needed a net gain of 17 seats. They won 10, and may net another two (Iowa’s 2nd and New York’s 22nd), where their candidates cling to slim leads but are fending off challenges from their Democratic opponents.
If those results stand, Republicans will be five seats shy of a majority. In the five closest races won by Democrats, the Republican candidates lost by a combined 31,751 votes.
Of those five races, three were in districts targeted by both parties: New Jersey’s 7th, Iowa’s 3rd, and Virginia’s 7th. But the other two, Illinois’ 14th and Texas’ 15th, were not considered to be competitive.
The closeness of both races reflects two important takeaways from the 2020 election.
In times of extreme polarization, individual candidate quality matters less than the partisan lean...