What defines a competitive race and who deems it so?
In the final months of the campaign, Oregon’s 4th District was home to one of hottest races in the country. Republicans and Democrats poured millions of dollars into the contest between Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio and Republican Alek Skarlatos, which was rated as competitive by all of the major political handicappers. GOP strategists were bullish. Democrats were concerned. And in the end, the congressman prevailed 52 percent to 46 percent.
Meanwhile, next door in Oregon’s 5th District, Democrat Kurt Schrader won reelection over Republican Amy Ryan Courser by a nearly identical 52 percent to 45 percent in a race that garnered no national attention. It wasn’t anywhere near the lists of battleground races. Virtually no TV ads. Yet the same results.
So what happened? How did two disparate races land in the same place?
One of the first ingredients of a competitive race is past performance, including the most recent presidential results. By the numbers, the two Oregon districts should have made the lists of competitive races considering Hillary Clinton’s underwhelming victories there in 2016. She carried the 4th very narrowly (44.5 percent to 44.4 percent) and the 5th modestly (46 percent to 42 percent).
Past congressional performance is another consideration, however, which didn’t bode well for the GOP. Democrats have held both districts for more than 20 years, and Republicans have a poor track record of recruiting quality challengers. In fact, the GOP put up the same candidate against DeFazio in the previous five cycles, and the congressman hadn’t lost by less than 10 points since his initial race in 1986. Schrader’s most competitive race was a decade ago when he won by 5 points. That meant...