Even though it’s not yet summer, there are windows looking into the fall. Recent television ad reservations from the Congressional Leadership Fund and the House Majority PAC show that, despite higher profile races for the Senate and White House, the battle for the House of Representatives is still very much afoot. Combined, the Republican-aligned CLF and the Democratic-aligned HMP placed nearly $100 million in initial ad reservations.
The competing buys — $51 million for HMP and $43 million for CLF — are placed by media market, not by congressional district, so matching dollars to individual races isn’t an exact science and groups have flexibility to switch races within a market. But a comparison of the two buys, which combine to cover 18 states and roughly four dozen races, and where they overlap (10 states and roughly two dozen races) paints a portrait of the emerging House battleground.
These reservations do not guarantee the parties will spend money in these markets and races because a group can cancel, increase, or decrease spending as Election Day approaches. But the reservations are a good indicator of where the groups are likely to spend resources because candidates and the official party campaign committees will make their own spending decisions based on these plans.
The Consensus Battlefield
The 10 states targeted by both HMP and CLF are Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia. Within those states, the Atlanta, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, and Houston media markets have emerged as the costliest for both Super PACs. Three of those four are major metro areas in presidential battleground states, contributing to their high advertising costs and prominence in these initial buys.
In Atlanta, HMP reserved $4.5 million for ads and...