Four months ago, seven freshman Democrats accelerated the impeachment process with an op-ed in The Washington Post. With less than a year before Election Day, their electoral fates represent a microcosm of the Republican challenge to win back the House majority.
For much of the impeachment discussion and process, Republicans have been emboldened. They believe Democrats will be held accountable for the time spent investigating President Donald Trump and experience a backlash similar to the one Republicans faced in the late 1990s when President Bill Clinton was impeached.
While the national narrative paints one scenario, an individual look at each race reveals a difficult road ahead for the GOP. The seven “national security Democrats” all represent districts recently represented by Republicans. All were elected in 2018 — four of them in districts Trump carried and three in districts that backed Hillary Clinton — with 53 percent or less of the vote.
Not only have the seven Democrats not shied away from impeachment, one of them, Colorado’s Jason Crow, is among the seven House impeachment managers.
Based on the partisanship of their districts now and the national political environment, along with the strength of the incumbents and challengers, the outlook is not good for the GOP. The best case scenario for Republicans, at this stage, is knocking off two or three of these seven freshmen. It’s also plausible that the GOP gets shut out — with no wins out of the seven races.
These aren’t all “must wins” for Republicans, but since the districts were part of the previous GOP majority, Republicans will have to find other seats to win around the country if they don’t win enough of these seven. And the story in many of those races is similar, where Republican candidates are getting lapped by Democrats in fundraising.
Here’s a look at each race:
Rep. Gil Cisneros, California’s 39th District
The good news for Republicans is that former state Assemblywoman Young Kim kept pace with Cisneros in cash on hand through Dec. 31 ($850,000 for the incumbent to $889,000 for Kim). The bad news is that Cisneros is a lottery winner with personal money to spend, and Clinton won the San Gabriel Valley/northern Orange County district with 52 percent in 2016. And there’s little evidence the district has shifted away from Democrats. Kim came within 2 points of a win in 2018, but it’s still a tough environment. Current rating: Likely Democratic.
Rep. Jason Crow, Colorado’s 6th
Less than a year into his first term, Crow was chosen as one of the impeachment managers. He represents a previously competitive district in the Aurora area, but Clinton’s 50 percent win in 2016, Crow’s 10-point victory in 2018 and the lack of a credible challenger in 2020 fuels Democratic confidence that impeachment won’t be a liability. Crow had $1.4 million in the bank on Dec. 31, while the next...