Republicans didn’t shed a tear after Rep. Justin Amash jumped the GOP ship. But their exuberance for being rid of the Michigan congressman might be masking his impact on the party’s effort to recapture the House majority and regain control of his 3rd District.
As more of a libertarian than a Republican, Amash has never fit comfortably within the GOP conference, and he made his departure official with a July 4 op-ed in The Washington Post declaring his independence from the Republican Party.
His relationship with the GOP has been irreparable since May, when Amash called for President Donald Trump to be impeached. And now he’ll be on Capitol Hill without a party and committee assignments, unless Speaker Nancy Pelosi decides to give him some.
For now, Amash plans to run for reelection as an independent in his Grand Rapids-area district, but he is also publicly considering challenging Trump as a Libertarian in 2020. Republicans would prefer the latter because it would be much less complicated for the party.
Battle for the House
At a minimum, Amash’s decision lowers the number of Republicans in the House and increases the number of seats Republicans need to gain in 2020 in order to recapture the majority.
The partisan balance of the House has now shifted slightly from 235 Democratic seats and 200 Republican seats, to 235 Democratic seats, 199 Republican seats, and one independent.
(Those totals include North Carolina’s 9th District under GOP representation even though the Republican was never seated for this Congress and assumes the vacant 3rd District in North Carolina will remain in GOP hands after September’s special election.)
In other words, before Amash’s decision, Republicans needed to gain 18 or 19 seats in Nov. 2020, depending on the outcome of the Sept. 10 redo election in North Carolina’s 9th. Now, Republicans need to gain 19 or 20 seats.
It might be easy for GOP Members and strategists to dismiss the difference of a single seat. But the party was already working against history. Republicans have gained more than 18 House seats in just one presidential election in the last 50 years, when they gained 34 seats in 1980. But the GOP was still nowhere near the majority that cycle.
Every House seat could matter in Nov. 2020 depending on the political climate, and Republicans will at least have to spend some time, energy, and potentially money on a seat they would not have had to worry about before Amash left the party.
Battle for the 3rd District
Amash has represented the 3rd District in West Michigan since 2010, when he won an open seat vacated by GOP Rep. Vern Ehlers’ decision not to seek re-election. The congressman has won his four House elections with an average of 56 percent, including a 54-43 percent victory in a 2018 race that didn’t receive national attention.
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