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The 2018 Democratic wave resulted in a new House majority and some districts—namely in the suburbs—that hosted closer-than-expected elections. For some of those districts, the 2018 result could have been an aberration, the result of a particularly strong year for Democrats. For others, however, those margins could be foreshadowing races to come.

New York Rep. Lee Zeldin is one of the GOP congressmen who was prepared for his race to become competitive and avoided getting caught off guard by a wave. The 1st District election wasn’t perceived as a top-tier Democratic pickup opportunity, however. An early October Siena/New York Times…

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