The only president Kazakhstan has known since independence is stepping aside, though not really down.
- Nursultan Nazarbayev carved out a powerful position for himself, set in motion a transition that should protect his family’s interests, and even had the capital city renamed in his honor — a model exit for any aspiring autocrat.
The big picture: With Nazarbayev’s surprise announcement, Algeria’s Abdelaziz Bouteflika ending his re-election bid, and Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir wobbling in the face of mass protests, the time feels ripe to take a look at the current world leaders who’ve held power the longest.
- The 20 longest-serving leaders all represent countries considered “not free” by Freedom House.
- The top 23 are all men. It isn’t until number 24 that we hit a “free” country, or a female leader — Germany’s Angela Merkel.
- Worth noting: Just below Putin in the rankings are Rwanda’s Paul Kagame (18 years), Syria’s Bashar al-Assad (18) and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan (16).
Between the lines: As regular readers may have picked up on, I’m fascinated by what Putin’s next move might be when he runs up against constitutional term limits in 2024.
- There’s speculation he might form a union with Belarus (whose president, Alexander Lukashenko, is also high on this list) and place himself in charge.
Nazarbayev offers a different path, and one Putin will surely be watching closely.
- Simply ceding power wasn't an attractive option but, as Carnegie Moscow's Alexander Gabuev points out, "if you want to keep your loved ones free, alive and wealthy, dying in office isn't an option."
- Instead, Nazarbayev weakened the presidency and empowered the security council, which he still leads, then elevated his daughter to a powerful post second in line to the presidency.
- Gabuev cites Singapore's former prime minister, Lee Kuan Yew, as Nazarbayev's model. He made way for his son, Lee Hsien Loong, who is now 21st on our list after 14 years in power.
In the Russian case, Alina Polyakova of Brookings argued recently that there is likely no successor who could guarantee the safety of Putin, his family and his assets. She expects some testing of public opinion through state TV ahead of whatever Putin's next move may be.
- Keir Giles of Chatham House thinks Putin almost certainly has a succession plan in mind already and predicts that Putinism will long outlast Putin. He warns: "Change in Russia is not always change, and it's certainly not always positive."
Meanwhile, Africa is home to half of the 24 longest-serving leaders and 5 of the top 7. There are two major reasons Africa’s longtime...