A political storm and a storm of nature swept Florida in October, and it will take November to sort out which made more of an electoral difference.
In the final weeks before Tuesday’s election, President Trump and Hurricane Michael proved big players on the Sunshine State stage as voters there choose whether to send incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson[1] back to Congress for a fourth term or to replace him with term-limited GOP Gov. Rick Scott[2].
The storm ravaged Florida’s northwestern bend and a good part of its Panhandle, the latter the source of roughly half of Mr. Scott[3]’s 60,000 vote victory in his 2014 gubernatorial re-election. Michael provided Floridians with another chance to see Mr. Scott[4]’s calm hand in a tempest and gave him oodles of positive airtime, but it also scattered one of his most reliable voting blocs and made politics a far less significant part of many lives there.
“His management of Hurricane Michael got good marks, although some discount its lasting impacts on voter choice,” said Susan MacManus, widely regarded as the dean of Florida political analysts. “We shall see.”
Meanwhile, President Trump, who has enthusiastically endorsed not just Mr. Scott[5], 65, but also the GOP nominee to replace him in the governor’s mansion, former Rep. Ron DeSantis, has lent his personal touch with visits, including one Saturday night in Pensacola, the Panhandle’s biggest city.
The Trump rallies underscored not only the importance both Republicans and Democrats have put on the Florida races, but also their closeness. When elections are decided by a mere percentage point — as most recent statewide Florida races have — then you want your top acts closing the deal.
For Democrats, that means left-wing Sen. Bernard Sanders of Vermont and former President Barack Obama.
Mr. Sanders stands solidly behind Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democratic candidate for governor, who has adopted many of Mr. Sanders’ most left-wing positions as his own: government-sponsored health care, taxpayer-funded college, a 40 percent increase in the state’s corporate tax rate and a $15-an-hour minimum wage.
But that leftward tilt in the governor’s race has been a mixed opportunity for Mr. Nelson[6], 76.
On the one hand, he has welcomed the enthusiasm Mr. Gillum has reportedly engendered among young, liberal voters. On the other hand,
Mr. Nelson[7] has had to tiptoe between the left-wing and a more centrist approach politicians usually favor in tight races. He says he’d like to see an increase in the minimum wage, but not to $15, for example.Still, the establishment of something like a ticket with
Mr. Nelson[8] and Mr. Gillum struck most analysts as a benefit.“After the primary, money began to pour into the Nelson campaign from outside of Florida,” Ms. MacManus said, adding that ...
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