With a growing number of vulnerable House districts, there might be too much to watch for on election night. But by focusing on just a handful of states, you can get a pretty good idea of whether Democrats are having a good enough night to gain the 23 seats necessary to win back the majority.
Minnesota
Competitive races: 5
Target Democratic gain for a majority: 1
The Land of 10,000 Lakes is home to five competitive House races, which is remarkable considering there are only eight congressional districts total in Minnesota.
Netting one seat might not sound like a steep climb for Democrats (who are technically part of the state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), but it would be a significant feat considering they are defending three districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016.
DFL Rep. Collin C. Peterson is likely to win re-election in the 7th District (rated Likely Democratic), but holding the open 1st and 8th districts (left behind by gubernatorial nominee Rep. Tim Walz and retiring Rep. Rick Nolan, respectively) will be more difficult. Both are rated Toss-ups at this stage, but Democrats might be fortunate to lose just one.
On their offensive map, Democrats are probably struggling to reach a majority if they can’t defeat Republican Rep. Jason Lewis in the 2nd District (Toss-up). But if they can knock off Lewis and GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in the 3rd District (Tilts Republican), they’ll probably be able to gain a seat out of the state.
Minnesota bottom line: Democrats probably need to gain at least a seat, while breaking even would be a disappointment.
California
Competitive races: 9
Target Democratic gain for a majority: 5
Unlike Minnesota, it’s virtually all upside for Democrats in the Golden State. There are at least nine legitimately vulnerable GOP districts, while the Republican takeover opportunities have either faded or have yet to develop.
The most likely to flip right now is the 49th District (Tilts Democratic), which opened after GOP Rep. Darrell Issa decided against seeking re-election. Democrats are also optimistic about winning Rep. Ed Royce’s open seat in the 39th District (Toss-up), although Republicans, who are confident about their nominee, have a very different view of the race. Democrats also believe they’re likely to defeat GOP Dana Rohrabacher in the 48th (Toss-up). Losing any of those seats — especially the open seats in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 — would be a punch in the gut for Democrats.
But the party also has good takeover opportunities against Reps. Jeff Denham(10th District), Steve Knight (25th District), and Mimi Walters (45th District). The three races are currently rated Tilts Republican, but winning at least one of them is reasonable for Democrats under reasonably good electoral conditions.
Reps. Tom McClintock (4th District), David...