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Republican worries of a midterm flop are growing heading into the critical post-Labor Day campaign season, with analysts who had previously predicted massive GOP gains shifting their forecasts toward Democrats.
Rick Tyler, a Republican strategist and analyst, said the environment looks “not even close” to a red wave election year.
“The enthusiasm is just not there,” Tyler said. “Last time Republicans had a good year, they were 6 points ahead in the generic poll. Now we're barely 2 points ahead. So it's definitely not going to happen.”
RealClearPolitics averages of polls measuring whether voters would prefer Republican or Democratic control of Congress show the GOP advantage slipping from 4.8 points in late April to less than a point as of Friday. At around this point in 2010, when Republicans saw historic gains in Congress, generic polls showed an advantage of 4 to 6 points for the GOP.
Punctuating the narrowing polls was the result in a special election on Tuesday. New York’s 19th Congressional District — which includes suburban areas and went for former President Trump in 2016 but President Biden in 2020 — is representative of the...