The chair of House Republicans’ campaign arm on Wednesday sought to tamp down fears over the party’s loss in New York’s 19th district in a memo in which he called Democrat Pat Ryan's win a “quirk.”
Why it matters: The memo, obtained by Axios, comes as Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) faces criticism from inside his party that he's too distracted about what his role may be if the GOP takes power in November — and not focused enough on ensuring the party wins back the majority.
Driving the news: Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro, a popular county executive and former gubernatorial nominee, in an upset. Molinaro was seen as Republicans' ideal candidate, and many expected him to cruise to victory Tuesday night.
- In the memo, titled "A Quick Note on What happened in NY-19," Emmer concedes that the election “didn’t deliver the result we hoped for” but defended the NRCC’s performance.
- He cites the fact that the special election was held simultaneously with New York’s regular primary election, arguing that New York’s closed primary system discourages independent voters from turning out.
- “As a historically blue state, the primary often serves as the general election for New York Democrats,” he wrote. “This means New York Democrats historically turn out at much higher rates for primaries.”
- He also argued that a series of polls, including those conducted by both the NRCC and the Democratic National Campaign Committee, showing Molinaro ahead failed to predict “the structural advantage Democrats had” by using samples that look more like the November electorate.
The big picture: Republicans came into 2022 with unwavering confidence that inflation and President Biden’s poor poll...