Far-right candidates are surging in House races across the map: Republican leaders increasingly fear that a red wave will wash in a raft of conspiracy theorists and extremists.
Why it matters: The establishment grows ever weaker. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy — on the doorstep of the speaker’s office — can expect to be saddled with new members who have zero loyalty or predictability.
What's happening: Many of the GOP candidates expected to cause leadership headaches are backed by former President Trump, whose grip on McCarthy is as strong as ever.
- They play well with Trump's MAGA base and are running in incredibly conservative districts.
- Several, like Loren Culp and Joe Kent in Washington, have made no secret of their disdain for McCarthy and GOP leadership overall.
What we're hearing: In cycles past, leadership has attempted to get involved in some races to stiff-arm candidates they find problematic.
- But this time, House GOP leadership is highly sensitive to the political downsides of interfering: Republicans need these candidates to take back the majority and make McCarthy speaker.
- McCarthy has been careful not to alienate them, hoping his hands-off approach will help earn their trust and foster goodwill down the line.
Yes, but: Once in office, it will be hard for McCarthy to control his far-right freshmen — just as he's faced difficulty wrangling Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), who see themselves as "untouchable."...
- Greene, for example, has long gloated she's immune to punishment by McCarthy. That's been true even after she and