While it’s wise not to overreact to special election outcomes, don’t dismiss Republican Mayra Flores’ special election victory in Texas' 34th District.
There are some reasons to qualify Tuesday’s outcome, including the fact that Republicans outspent Democrats by a sizable margin, and the seat is going to be different (and more Democratic) in the November election because of redistricting.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
On the most basic level, Flores flipped a seat previously held by a Democrat (Rep. Filemon Vela) that Joe Biden won in 2020. (He did it by 4 points.) Her victory changes the math for Republicans trying to win back the House. Now, the GOP needs a net gain of four seats, instead of a net gain of five seats, for a majority in November.
Flores’ victory also pulls a seat that Democrats were supposed to win without too much difficulty onto the list of competitive races. The newly-drawn 34th District was rated Solid Democratic before the special election (in part because Biden would have won it by 16 points) but is now rated Likely Democratic. Flores has an uphill climb against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez — who will run in the 34th rather than the 15th, which he currently represents — but she’ll enjoy some momentum and advantages of incumbency including fundraising and gaining significant national attention after her special election victory.
The special election result should not be a complete surprise. Inside Elections had Tuesday’s race rated as a Toss-up and the potential fallout was foreseeable.
“A win by Republicans here — even if the seat flips back in a few months — would be a thunderclap across the United States,” wrote Jacob Rubashkin in the ...