Tennessee saw relatively few changes to its congressional map following the most recent round of redistricting, but new lines in the Nashville area almost ensure there will be a change in the partisan composition of its House delegation.
The Volunteer State keeps its nine congressional seats, and while most of those districts will resemble their current configurations, the 5th District will look much different. Formerly a dependably Democratic district anchored around Nashville, it was effectively eliminated by Republican mapmakers in the state Legislature, meaning Davidson County is now split like a pinwheel between three GOP-favored districts. (A similar plan had been discussed during the redistricting process post-2010, but was ultimately decided against.)
With these changes to the map, the median Republican-leaning district would have voted for President Donald Trump by 30.7 points in 2020, according to a composite of all statewide and federal races in Tennessee between 2016 and 2020 calculated by Inside Elections. On the flipside, the state’s sole Democratic-leaning district, the 9th, voted overwhelmingly in favor of Joe Biden.
Republicans currently have a 7R-2D advantage in the state’s congressional delegation. With the GOP favored to flip the redrawn 5th District, the most likely outcome is that Tennessee sends eight Republicans and one Democrat to Congress. None of the new seats look to be especially competitive this November.
1st District
The 1st is Tennessee’s easternmost district, containing the Tri-Cities of Kingsport, Johnson City, and Bristol, as well as Morristown. Its lines stay practically the same, the primary difference being reduced reach into Jefferson County. The 1st preferred Republicans by an average of 52.7 points according to the composite of 2016-2020 elections, and Trump would have carried the district by 54...