There is a 50% chance that, during the next five years, the global average surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the preindustrial average for the first time in an individual year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported Monday.
Why it matters: Under the Paris Agreement, countries are seeking to limit global warming to 1.5°C of warming compared to preindustrial levels, in order to minimize the potential for devastating climate change impacts.
Studies show that if global warming were to exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial levels and remain there, the odds of widespread damage would greatly increase.
Between the lines: The new report, which provides climate projections for the five-year period between 2022 and 2026, does not indicate that the 1.5-degree target will be breached over the long-term, which is the target's meaning under the Paris Agreement.
- Led by the UK Met Office for the WMO, which is a U.N. agency, with contributions from climate centers in the U.S., Australia, Denmark and other nations, the report shows that the odds of exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold during the short-run are rapidly increasing.
- For example, the WMO found the odds of a single year seeing temperature anomalies at or above 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels was just 10% for the 2017-2021 forecast period.
- Leon Hermanson, who led the report, said in a statement that the increasing odds of exceeding 1.5-degrees in a single year also demonstrates "That we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5°C could be exceeded for an extended period."
The big picture: Climate studies have shown that if warming were to exceed 1.5°C as a long-term average, then far more severe consequences...