Public support and political momentum for Finland joining NATO has reached an all-time high as a result of the war in Ukraine, raising the very real possibility that the alliance's borders with Russia could extend by more than 830 miles in a matter of months.
Why it matters: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced a reckoning in European capitals over defense spending and security policy. If Finland joins NATO, it would represent the biggest transformation of Europe's security architecture in years.
State of play: The Finnish government is expected to submit a report to parliament on the changed security environment by the end of this month, kicking off a debate and eventually a recommendation on applying for NATO membership.
- 60% of Finns now support joining NATO, according to a survey conducted last month — a 34-point jump from last fall, and the highest level since polling on the issue began in 1998.
- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said this week he expects "all 30 allies to welcome" both Sweden and Finland to the alliance if the Nordic neighbors decide to apply, suggesting the process for membership would move rapidly.
What they're saying: "I think Finns at the moment are driven by what I call rational fear," former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb told Axios in an interview....
- "You have to balance between realism and idealism. Realism is that you have a strong standing military as we have, and idealism is to try to cooperate with a big neighbor," Stubb said.
- "There has been this bona fide attempt to forge a functioning relationship with Russia, and now that people see that that