With a Democratic governor and a GOP-controlled legislature, redistricting in Wisconsin was destined to be settled by the court system — especially given how acrimonious the relationship is between Gov. Tony Evers and Republicans in Madison.
But most of the drama was taken out of the redistricting process several months ago when the Wisconsin Supreme Court said it would adhere to the “least changes” standard when selecting a new map — meaning a plan that deviated in the least significant way from the current map, which was drawn by Republicans in 2011.
That was good news for Republicans. Under the current map, President Donald Trump would have carried six of the eight districts in the Badger State in 2020, despite losing overall to Joe Biden by 0.6 points, 49.5-48.8 percent. The delegation is currently split 5R-3D, with one Trump-won district held by a Democrat (the retiring Ron Kind).
Ultimately, the court selected a “least changes” plan proposed by Evers, rather than the one put forth by GOP state legislators. While the new map still contains six districts carried by Trump, it differs from the GOP-favored plan by not making Kind’s district even less favorable to Democrats, and actually makes Republican Rep. Bryan Steil’s district slightly competitive.
Republicans have appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn that decision, but the high court has declined to involve itself in similar cases in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Given the favorable national winds for Republicans, the GOP stands to gain one seat in Wisconsin this cycle, but in better years for Democrats as many as two seats could become competitive.
1st District
The 1st District, located at the southeast corner of the state and already encompassing Janesville, Kenosha...