South Carolina’s new congressional map, approved in late January, will likely entrench Republicans’ electoral advantage for the next decade.
Compared to the outgoing districts, the new lines saw minimal changes — a conscious decision on the part of GOP mapmakers — with the most noticeable differences in the 1st District, which is now more favorable for Republicans.
The maps have faced pushback from Democrats and legal groups. Some argue for the addition of a second district accommodating the state’s Black voters, alongside the existing 6th District, as one-quarter of the state’s population is African American. In fact, this is the sixth consecutive redistricting cycle in which the constitutionality of South Carolina’s maps has come under scrutiny.
But considering these most recent legal challenges have all but stalled in the courts, Republicans will likely maintain their 6R-1D majority in the congressional delegation.
1st District
Located in southeastern South Carolina (also known as the Lowcountry), the 1st trades away most of its coverage in Charleston for more reach into Berkeley County. These changes make the district friendlier to Republicans, meaning they will probably avoid a similar situation to 2018, when Democrat Joe Cunningham flipped the district in an upset (before promptly losing to now-Republican Rep. Nancy Mace in 2020).
Across a composite of eight federal and statewide elections in South Carolina between 2016 and 2020 calculated by Inside Elections, the new 1st preferred Republicans by an average of 12.5 points, and the district would have voted for former President Donald Trump by approximately 8 points in 2020. The best-funded Democrat in the race is pediatrician Annie Andrews, but Mace’s biggest challenge looks like the primary, where she’s being...