Despite some drama, Kentucky’s new congressional map is poised to solidify the delegation’s existing partisan breakdown.
Heading into redistricting, the Republican-controlled state legislature had the opportunity to go aggressive and potentially move the Democratic-held 3rd District into the GOP’s column. But ultimately Republicans left the 3rd intact, and made only minimal changes statewide compared to the current lines.
The new map has received much pushback from Democrats. It was vetoed by Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear upon arriving at his desk, but that veto was quickly overridden by the General Assembly (veto overrides only require a simple majority in Kentucky). The map now faces a lawsuit from the Kentucky Democratic Party which argues that the sprawling 1st District intentionally dilutes Democratic votes.
Legality aside, none of Kentucky’s congressional districts look to be electorally exciting. The GOP-held 6th District is nominally the most competitive seat, but is at best a longshot for Democrats.
Kentucky’s congressional delegation will likely continue to contain five Republicans and one Democrat following the 2022 midterm elections and beyond.
1st District
The 1st is Kentucky’s westernmost district, including the city of Paducah and spanning 35 counties. In terms of geographic changes, the district now snakes north through Washington and Boyle counties as well as portions of Anderson County to also take in Franklin County (and the capital, Frankfort). It loses McLean, Muhlenberg, and Ohio counties in return.
Rep. James Comer, the top Republican on the House Oversight and Reform Committee, is in no apparent danger. Only one Democrat is running, therapist Jimmy Ausbrooks, who also campaigned for Senate in 2020. Across a composite of 10 federal and statewide elections in Kentucky between 2016...