It might have required resorting to Plan B, but Virginia has a new congressional map.
The state’s bipartisan redistricting commission, which was approved by voters in 2020, failed to agree on new district lines in October, handing over control of the mapmaking process to the state Supreme Court. Two special masters, one chosen by each party, were then appointed to assist with the final proposals. After comments from the public and revisions by the special masters, the official map was approved in late December.
Compared to the current lines, the changes to the districts were mostly minimal. Virginia will retain its 11 congressional seats, and no incumbents will be forced to run against each other.
Currently, the state’s congressional delegation is composed of seven Democrats and four Republicans. The new map creates five districts that are heavily Democratic, four districts that are reliably Republican, and two competitive districts (both of which are currently represented by Democrats). President Joe Biden would have carried seven of the eleven districts in the 2020 presidential election, while Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin would have carried six districts in the 2021 governor’s race.
A best-case scenario for Democrats would probably be maintaining the 7D-4R status quo. But if Republicans still have the headwinds of a favorable national environment going into November, the 2nd and 7th districts could become very real pickup opportunities. If both seats were to flip, Republicans would hold a 6R-5D majority in the congressional delegation.
1st District
The northernmost Tidewater district, the 1st, no longer extends into the city of Fredericksburg or Prince William and Fauquier counties, but it now reaches around the Richmond exurbs to take in portions of Henrico and Chesterfield counties. These...