Redistricting and a flood of departing incumbents are paving the way for more extreme candidates in this year's midterm elections.
Driving the news: At least 19 House districts in 12 states are primed to attract such candidates — hard partisans running in strongly partisan districts — according to an Axios analysis of districts as measured by the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI).
- They stretch across every region of the U.S., from Alabama to Michigan to California.
- While a new generation of hard-right figures like Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia has hardened the identity of the Republican Party in recent years, 12 of the 19 districts we're watching favor Democrats.
What we're watching: These 19 districts are open seats — with no incumbent running because of retirement, or the incumbent running for another office or district — and with PVI scores of at least +15R or +15D.
Scores reflect redistricting changes where applicable, and the list could change as new maps are finalized.
- That score measures by how many points on average a given congressional district outperformed the national vote — either in favor of Republicans or Democrats — during the two most recent presidential elections.
The big picture: Incumbents start with a huge advantage; 91% of them won re-election in 2018, according to OpenSecrets....
- When they leave, it levels the playing field for new candidates. And as districts grow more partisan, so, generally, do the candidates who step up.
- "Open seats are the biggest accelerant of extremism" and