On Nov. 16, Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak signed his state’s new congressional maps into law. The map was drawn and passed by the Democratic-controlled state legislature and signed by Sisolak, also a Democrat, the same day.
In the 10 years Nevada has had four congressional districts, Republicans have held a 3-1 advantage, the delegation has been split 2-2, and Democrats have held a 3-1 advantage as they do now. Neither party has ever held all four at once — befitting for a state so evenly divided.
But that could change in 2022 because of a gamble Democrats are taking.
Nevada Democrats have “unpacked” the Las Vegas-based 1st District, in an effort to ease the re-election efforts of Reps. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford, whose 3rd and 4th districts sit to the south and north of Las Vegas, respectively. Because many of the 1st’s Democratic voters have been parceled out to its two neighbors, the district will be competitive for the first time in a decade.
That means that none of the state’s four seats will be rated Solid Democratic heading into what looks to be a brutal cycle for Democrats, and creates the possibility that Republicans could sweep all four districts. A status quo map would have preserved at least one Democratic seat.
It’s not yet clear how bad 2022 will be for Democrats, and the new map does create three seats Biden carried by at least 7 points in a state that Biden only carried by 2 points, giving all three Democratic incumbents decent starting positions.
But in a politically temperamental state such as Nevada, Democrats could be tempting fate at an inopportune moment when a loss of just five seats will cost them the House...