Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG
House Majority PAC has never been afraid to spend money.
Still, the Democratic stalwart of Super PAC spending has, for the past decade, limited its involvement in off-cycle and pre-primary activity. Even as other outside PACs have grown more willing to broadcast creatives in the odd years (far in advance of the elections themselves), HMP has served most often as later support in tight races, the final push that Democratic campaigns seek in the months leading up to Election Day.
That was the case until 2021, at least.
Last week, House Majority Forward, the 501(c)(4) non-profit affiliated with HMP that was created in 2019, began rolling out a broadcast blitz across 10 Democratic districts, including eight races anticipated to be among the most competitive. Targeted seats included Iowa's 3rd, Kansas' 3rd, Michigan's 8th, New Hampshire's 1st, Pennsylvania's 8th, Virginia's 2nd and Virginia's 7th, which all include a Democratic incumbent, at least until new congressional lines are drawn.
Each district received its own custom spot, built ground up with the politics of the area in mind (in contrast to the cookie-cutter ads that are often pumped out in the off-year). By Monday morning, House Majority Forward had spent $522,000 on this latest ad blitz and broadcast the spots over 800 times.
But this wasn’t House Majority Forward’s first advertising push of the year – beginning with a Q-Anon focused creative targeting Representative McCarthy in February, they have so far broadcast 21 unique creatives in 15 different House races. As of last week, ads in these broadcast campaigns had cost them a considerable $1.4 million and aired over 2,500 times.
Exactly how unprecedented is this off-cycle spending? Digging back through House...