On Thursday, the Census Bureau released its first set of long-awaited local data, kicking off what promises to be a consequential and messy redistricting process. Over the next six months (or so), states will take that block-level population and racial data and draw new congressional and legislative districts to use for the next decade. (The Census Bureau will also release the same data but in more user-friendly form by the end of September).
In a more normal post-census year, the map drawing process would already be well underway. But protracted litigation and the coronavirus pandemic combined to delay the census, which had a cascading effect on the redistricting process. Reapportionment data (how many House seats each state gets) was supposed to be released by Dec. 31, 2020, but did not come out until April 26, 2021. And the block-level results were scheduled for release on April 1, 2021, but did not come out until Aug. 12.
That four-month delay compresses what is already a complex endeavor into a mad dash to complete congressional maps, followed by months and potentially years of court challenges and redraws.
You may have noticed that Inside Elections has not yet released race ratings for the House, or issued broader projections as to the potential net change in seats. Without district lines, it’s simply premature to assign ratings to individual contests, and it’s difficult to make macro projections without the micro ratings. The outset of this redistricting season was made all the more unpredictable by delays, and untested commissions in states such as Michigan, Colorado, and Virginia, and looming litigation, make this redistricting cycle even more challenging to predict.
Even with lines, we’re still far from Election Day 2022, and there is so much — from...