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By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

More than a year before the midterms, the narrow Senate battlefield continues to solidify as the candidate fields in key states become more clear. Yet there’s still one key ingredient missing in the fight for the majority: the national political environment.

There’s a rhythm to handicapping elections. At the beginning of each cycle, it’s about coming up with logical hypotheses based on historical trends. With a Democratic president in the White House, 2022 is likely to favor Republicans, with a neutral political environment being a secondary scenario.

The balance of the cycle is…

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