Sixteen months before Election Day, new House district lines haven’t even been drawn, and yet the fight for Congress is likely to hinge on the outcomes in four critical states.
On a basic level, every state matters in the Senate, considering Republicans need to gain just a single seat to get to the majority. Each significant recruitment development (such as if GOP Gov. Chris Sununu challenges Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire) would instantly affect the handicapping of a race and the fight for control. But there are other states less dependent on a single candidate.
Every seat also matters in the House, where Republicans need a net gain of five seats for a majority — a paltry number in a body of 435 members and in the face of the midterm history, which favors the party out of the White House. And some states, such as Texas, are of particular importance to one of the chambers. But a handful of states are hosting competitive races that will affect control of both the House and the Senate.
Georgia
After winning one of two essential runoffs on Jan. 5 to deliver control of the Senate to Democrats, Sen. Raphael Warnock is a prime Republican target in 2022. Along with Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Warnock won a special election last cycle and is bidding for a full term next year. Considering Joe Biden won the Peach State by less than half a percentage point, Georgia is one of the most critical races to watch in the general election. And an interesting GOP primary could develop as well.
Even though Georgia didn’t gain or lose a seat in reapportionment, it’s a key state to watch for redistricting and the...